1
HOUNYG at HOU
78.0%LOSS
2
MININD at MIN
72.1%WIN
3
DENDEN at ARI
65.1%WIN
Week Progress14 of 14 final
14 Final0 In Progress0 Upcoming
Predictions Lockedv2.2.0 · 50,000 simulations
MODEL PERFORMANCE
How our picks performed
Win rates exclude pushes · hypothetical $10 per bet
Week 2 uses saved preview selections rather than official locked picks. Results are illustrative; see calculation details for historical pricing assumptions.
Historical coverage: No archived predictions for Week 1; excluded from calculations.
Last Week
Week 6Season to Date
2026 seasonHow are these calculated?
Win % is the historical accuracy of graded model selections: wins divided by wins plus losses, displayed to one decimal place. Pushes and pending bets are excluded. Dollar profit/loss is hypothetical, assuming $10 staked on each selection and saved sportsbook odds where available. Spread and total bets without saved prices use estimated −110 odds; when any selected moneyline price is missing, the dollar result shows N/A rather than inventing a return. Win rate can be positive while the betting strategy loses money.
Week 2 is evaluated using a saved September 18 preview, not verified original locked picks; some games may already have started when that file was created. VegasInsider prices are retrospective reference odds, and unmatched spread and total prices use estimated −110. These returns are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a live pregame track record.
Some older weeks have only summary results. Those weeks contribute to verified win/loss percentages, but profit is N/A if the individual betting odds are unavailable. A missing weekly Top 3 list is not reconstructed; only archived selections count toward Top 3. Weeks without any archived results are excluded, and the bet-by-bet drilldown displays only saved individual picks.
All Bets includes one moneyline, one spread and one over/under selection per game. Best / Game uses the highest-confidence selection in each game. Top 3 shows the three highest-confidence predictions from each week, regardless of market. Moneyline, Spread and Over/Under show the strongest selection in their respective markets per game. Season to Date totals the available archived weeks. These are modeled hypothetical returns, not actual betting winnings. The toggle changes the primary number, while both measures remain visible.
HISTORICAL SPORTSBOOK ODDSVegasInsider · 2026 Weeks 1–348 archived game lines · spreads, totals, and moneylines
Historical reference quotes from VegasInsider, collected October 13, 2026. These prices were viewed after kickoff and are not verified as the prices available when the model locked its predictions. They do not replace saved betting lines or create missing predictions for Weeks 1–2. Model Performance profit/loss remains based on saved pregame selections.
| Matchup | Spread & price | Over / Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB / ATL | GB -4.5 (-112)ATL +4.5 (-108) | Over 43.5 (-105)Under 43.5 (-115) | GB -238ATL +195 |
| DET / NYJ | DET -7 (-115)NYJ +7 (-105) | Over 49.5 (-110)Under 49.5 (-110) | DET -355NYJ +280 |
| IND / HOU | IND +1.5 (-108)HOU -1.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 (-110)Under 42.5 (-110) | IND +100HOU -120 |
| CLE / CAR | CLE +2.5 (-112)CAR -2.5 (-108) | Over 41.5 (-115)Under 41.5 (-105) | CLE +114CAR -135 |
| MIA / KC | MIA +10 (-112)KC -10 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-105)Under 45.5 (-115) | MIA +440KC -600 |
| WSH / SEA | WSH +8.5 (-115)SEA -8.5 (-105) | Over 40.5 (-108)Under 40.5 (-112) | WSH +320SEA -410 |
| JAX / NE | JAX -3 (-102)NE +3 (-118) | Over 46.5 (-115)Under 46.5 (-105) | JAX -155NE +130 |
| BUF / LAC | BUF -7 (-112)LAC +7 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-105)Under 50.5 (-115) | BUF -325LAC +260 |
| PIT / CIN | PIT +3.5 (-118)CIN -3.5 (-102) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | PIT +150CIN -180 |
| NYG / TEN | NYG -2.5 (-110)TEN +2.5 (-110) | Over 37.5 (-112)Under 37.5 (-108) | NYG -130TEN +110 |
| TB / MIN | TB -1.5 (-102)MIN +1.5 (-118) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | TB -115MIN -105 |
| SF / ARI | SF -7.5 (-110)ARI +7.5 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-105)Under 48.5 (-115) | SF -410ARI +310 |
| DAL / BAL | DAL +3 (-102)BAL -3 (-118) | Over 54.5 (-108)Under 54.5 (-112) | DAL +140BAL -166 |
| NO / LV | NO -4.5 (-105)LV +4.5 (-115) | Over 43.5 (-125)Under 43.5 (+105) | NO -225LV +180 |
| DEN / LAR | DEN -1.5 (-108)LAR +1.5 (-112) | Over 44.5 (-108)Under 44.5 (-112) | DEN -118LAR -102 |
| CHI / PHI | CHI +3 (-105)PHI -3 (-115) | Over 42.5 (-108)Under 42.5 (-112) | CHI +154PHI -185 |
View Week 2–3 current-model historical replays ↗
Table team order follows VegasInsider, not home/away order. Lines from a later sportsbook snapshot can differ from locked DraftKings lines; do not use a mismatched spread or total to price a historical bet.
THIS WEEK’S TOP PICKS
Week 7 · Ranked by model confidenceHighest-probability model predictions
1
CIN -3.0CIN at BAL
57.7%WIN
2
CAR -3.0TB at CAR
55.4%LOSS
3
KC +3.0KC at SEA
54.9%LOSS
1
OVER 42.5NYG at HOU
53.9%WIN
2
OVER 43.5PIT at NO
53.1%LOSS
3
OVER 42.5KC at SEA
52.1%LOSS
WEEKLY BOARD
14 Games · 14 Locked Predictions
HighestSecondThird
FINALThu, Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT
NE4-3-0@
CHI5-2-0WIN PROBABILITYCHI 56.2%FINAL / MODEL24–30 / 24.0–26.1POINT SPREADNE · 51.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.4%TOP PICKCHI56.2%
NE4-3-0@CHI5-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NE 24.0—CHI 26.1
MONEYLINE
CHI WIN (56.2%)
MODELCHI -155
SPORTSBOOKCHI -155
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 50.1 (51.4%)
MODEL50.1
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 50.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NE +2.1 (51.2%)
MODEL+2.1
SPORTSBOOKNE +3.0
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CHI is at home. The model favors CHI at 56.2% and projects NE 24.0–CHI 26.1. Key injuries: Channing Canada (CB, out), Karon Prunty (CB, out), Ben Brown (C, out), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, out). NE last 3: W 29–26 vs BUF, W 45–17 vs LV, W 26–19 vs NYJ. CHI last 3: W 23–12 vs NYJ, L 7–31 vs GB, W 31–23 vs ATL. Weather: 61°F, gusts 10 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +2.1 vs +3.0 (0.9-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.9 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.9 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 8:30 AM CDTPIT5-2-0@
NO2-5-0WIN PROBABILITYPIT 57.3%FINAL / MODEL16–10 / 23.6–21.0POINT SPREADNO · 49.6%OVER / UNDEROVER · 53.1%TOP PICKPIT57.3%
PIT5-2-0@NO2-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PIT 23.6—NO 21.0
MONEYLINE
PIT WIN (57.3%)
MODELPIT -162
SPORTSBOOKPIT -162
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 44.5 (53.1%)
MODEL44.5
SPORTSBOOKOVER 43.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NO +2.6 (49.6%)
MODEL+2.6
SPORTSBOOKNO +3.0
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NO is at home. The model favors PIT at 57.3% and projects PIT 23.6–NO 21.0. Key injuries: Brandin Echols (CB, out), Ben Skowronek (WR, out), Cesar Ruiz (G, questionable), Nathan Shepherd (DT, questionable). PIT last 3: L 24–27 vs CLE, W 34–22 vs IND, W 26–19 vs TB. NO last 3: L 24–45 vs ATL, L 13–23 vs MIN, W 34–27 vs NYG. Weather: 70°F; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.6 vs -3.0 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.3Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
SF6-1-0@
ATL3-4-0WIN PROBABILITYSF 55.1%FINAL / MODEL20–29 / 26.4–24.5POINT SPREADATL · 52.4%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.0%TOP PICKSF55.1%
SF6-1-0@ATL3-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
SF 26.4—ATL 24.5
MONEYLINE
SF WIN (55.1%)
MODELSF -148
SPORTSBOOKSF -148
✕ LOSTSPREAD
ATL +1.9 (52.4%)
MODEL+1.9
SPORTSBOOKATL +2.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 50.9 (51.0%)
MODEL50.9
SPORTSBOOKOVER 50.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
ATL is at home. The model favors SF at 55.1% and projects SF 26.4–ATL 24.5. Key injuries: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, out), Nick Bosa (DE, out), Garret Wallow (LB, out), Luke Gifford (LB, out). SF last 3: W 24–14 vs DEN, W 32–29 vs SEA, W 23–17 vs WSH. ATL last 3: W 45–24 vs NO, L 23–30 vs BAL, L 23–31 vs CHI. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -1.9 vs -2.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.3Context Adjustment +0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
CLE5-2-0@
TEN1-6-0WIN PROBABILITYCLE 53.4%FINAL / MODEL27–24 / 19.3–17.1POINT SPREADTEN · 50.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.5%TOP PICKCLE53.4%
CLE5-2-0@TEN1-6-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CLE 19.3—TEN 17.1
MONEYLINE
CLE WIN (53.4%)
MODELCLE -130
SPORTSBOOKCLE -130
✓ WONSPREAD
TEN +2.3 (50.9%)
MODEL+2.3
SPORTSBOOKTEN +2.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 36.4 (50.5%)
MODEL36.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 36.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TEN is at home. The model favors CLE at 53.4% and projects CLE 19.3–TEN 17.1. Key injuries: Mike Hall Jr. (DT, out), Calvin Ridley (WR, questionable), Tony Adams (S, questionable), Kevin Winston Jr. (S, questionable). CLE last 3: W 27–24 vs PIT, L 12–17 vs NYJ, W 13–10 vs BAL. TEN last 3: L 18–24 vs BAL, L 3–26 vs HOU, W 26–20 vs IND. Weather: 70°F, gusts 5 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.3 vs -2.5 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
IND2-5-0@MIN6-0-0WIN PROBABILITYMIN 72.1%FINAL / MODEL10–16 / 17.3–24.5POINT SPREADMIN · 52.7%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.7%TOP PICKMIN72.1%
IND2-5-0@MIN6-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
IND 17.3—MIN 24.5
MONEYLINE
MIN WIN (72.1%)
MODELMIN -325
SPORTSBOOKMIN -325
✓ WONSPREAD
MIN -7.1 (52.7%)
MODEL-7.1
SPORTSBOOKMIN -6.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 41.8 (50.7%)
MODEL41.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
MIN is at home. The model favors MIN at 72.1% and projects IND 17.3–MIN 24.5. Key injuries: Sauce Gardner (CB, out), Anthony Gould (WR, out), CJ Allen (LB, out), Tyler Warren (TE, out). IND last 3: W 30–13 vs WSH, L 22–34 vs PIT, L 20–26 vs TEN. MIN last 3: W 23–16 vs TB, W 15–10 vs MIA, W 23–13 vs NO. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.1 vs +6.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.6Context Adjustment +0.6Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.6 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.6 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
MIA1-5-0@
NYJ2-5-0WIN PROBABILITYNYJ 63.0%FINAL / MODEL28–25 / 17.8–21.3POINT SPREADMIA · 54.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.6%TOP PICKNYJ63.0%
MIA1-5-0@NYJ2-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
MIA 17.8—NYJ 21.3
MONEYLINE
NYJ WIN (63.0%)
MODELNYJ -218
SPORTSBOOKNYJ -218
✕ LOSTSPREAD
MIA +3.4 (54.2%)
MODEL+3.4
SPORTSBOOKMIA +4.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 39.1 (51.6%)
MODEL39.1
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 39.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NYJ is at home. The model favors NYJ at 63.0% and projects MIA 17.8–NYJ 21.3. Key injuries: Max Mitchell (OT, out), Joseph Ossai (DE, out), Reese Taylor (CB, out), Robert Beal Jr. (DE, doubtful). MIA last 3: L 10–24 vs KC, L 10–15 vs MIN, L 24–31 vs CIN. NYJ last 3: L 12–23 vs CHI, W 17–12 vs CLE, L 19–26 vs NE. Weather: 63°F, gusts 6 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.4 vs +4.5 (1.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.1 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.2Context Adjustment -0.6Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.6 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
TB2-5-0@CAR3-3-0WIN PROBABILITYCAR 58.9%FINAL / MODEL43–13 / 19.6–24.4POINT SPREADCAR · 55.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.7%TOP PICKCAR58.9%
TB2-5-0@CAR3-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
TB 19.6—CAR 24.4
MONEYLINE
CAR WIN (58.9%)
MODELCAR -155
SPORTSBOOKCAR -155
✕ LOSTSPREAD
CAR -4.9 (55.4%)
MODEL-4.9
SPORTSBOOKCAR -3.0
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 44.0 (51.7%)
MODEL44.0
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 44.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CAR is at home. The model favors CAR at 58.9% and projects TB 19.6–CAR 24.4. Key injuries: Luke Goedeke (OT, out), Baker Mayfield (QB, questionable), Emeka Egbuka (WR, out), Jaelan Phillips (LB, out). TB last 3: L 14–17 vs GB, W 24–16 vs DAL, L 19–26 vs PIT. CAR last 3: L 18–21 vs CLE, W 32–26 vs DET, W 25–14 vs PHI. Weather: 63°F, gusts 21 mph; model total adjustment -0.6. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +4.9 vs +3.0 (1.9-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.9 ptsInjury Adjustment +1.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.6 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+1.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.9 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDTCIN4-2-0@
BAL4-3-0WIN PROBABILITYCIN 58.7%FINAL / MODEL35–13 / 26.0–20.6POINT SPREADCIN · 57.7%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.3%TOP PICKCIN58.7%
CIN4-2-0@BAL4-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CIN 26.0—BAL 20.6
MONEYLINE
CIN WIN (58.7%)
MODELCIN -148
SPORTSBOOKCIN -148
✓ WONSPREAD
CIN -5.4 (57.7%)
MODEL-5.4
SPORTSBOOKCIN -3.0
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 46.6 (50.3%)
MODEL46.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 46.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
BAL is at home. The model favors CIN at 58.7% and projects CIN 26.0–BAL 20.6. Key injuries: Lamar Jackson (QB, out), Jaylinn Hawkins (S, out), Broderick Washington Jr. (DT, questionable). CIN last 3: L 27–30 vs PIT, L 17–22 vs JAX, W 31–24 vs MIA. BAL last 3: W 24–18 vs TEN, W 30–23 vs ATL, L 10–13 vs CLE. Weather: 62°F, gusts 5 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -5.4 vs -3.0 (2.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 2.4 ptsInjury Adjustment -2.5Context Adjustment -0.6Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-2.5 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET2.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.6 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
NYG4-2-1@HOU2-5-0WIN PROBABILITYHOU 78.0%FINAL / MODEL27–21 / 17.8–26.0POINT SPREADNYG · 54.7%OVER / UNDEROVER · 53.9%TOP PICKHOU78.0%
NYG4-2-1@HOU2-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NYG 17.8—HOU 26.0
MONEYLINE
HOU WIN (78.0%)
MODELHOU -500
SPORTSBOOKHOU -500
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NYG +8.3 (54.7%)
MODEL+8.3
SPORTSBOOKNYG +10.0
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 43.8 (53.9%)
MODEL43.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 42.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
HOU is at home. The model favors HOU at 78.0% and projects NYG 17.8–HOU 26.0. Key injuries: Blake Fisher (OT, out), Jalen Pitre (S, out), Reed Blankenship (S, out), Theo Johnson (TE, out). NYG last 3: W 36–24 vs ARI, T 27–27 vs WSH, L 27–34 vs NO. HOU last 3: L 30–34 vs DAL, W 26–3 vs TEN, W 34–31 vs JAX. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +8.3 vs +10.0 (1.7-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.7 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.2Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.7 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 3:05 PM CDTDEN5-2-0@
ARI2-5-0WIN PROBABILITYDEN 65.1%FINAL / MODEL30–16 / 24.3–19.0POINT SPREADDEN · 53.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.7%TOP PICKDEN65.1%
DEN5-2-0@ARI2-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DEN 24.3—ARI 19.0
MONEYLINE
DEN WIN (65.1%)
MODELDEN -225
SPORTSBOOKDEN -225
✓ WONSPREAD
DEN -5.3 (53.2%)
MODEL-5.3
SPORTSBOOKDEN -4.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 43.3 (50.7%)
MODEL43.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 43.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
ARI is at home. The model favors DEN at 65.1% and projects DEN 24.3–ARI 19.0. Key injuries: Carson Beck (QB, questionable), Jon Gaines II (G, out), Andrew Wingard (S, out), Talanoa Hufanga (S, out). DEN last 3: L 14–24 vs SF, W 23–17 vs LAC, W 17–14 vs SEA. ARI last 3: L 24–36 vs NYG, L 21–45 vs DET, W 18–16 vs LAR. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -5.3 vs -4.5 (0.8-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.8 ptsInjury Adjustment -1.0Context Adjustment -0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-1.0 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.8 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
GB4-3-0@
DET4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYDET 61.0%FINAL / MODEL17–20 / 25.3–29.7POINT SPREADDET · 53.5%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.2%TOP PICKDET61.0%
GB4-3-0@DET4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
GB 25.3—DET 29.7
MONEYLINE
DET WIN (61.0%)
MODELDET -180
SPORTSBOOKDET -180
✓ WONSPREAD
DET -4.4 (53.5%)
MODEL-4.4
SPORTSBOOKDET -3.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 55.1 (51.2%)
MODEL55.1
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 55.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DET is at home. The model favors DET at 61.0% and projects GB 25.3–DET 29.7. Key injuries: Kerby Joseph (S, out), Zaire Franklin (LB, out), Luke Musgrave (TE, out), Bo Melton (WR, questionable). GB last 3: W 17–14 vs TB, W 31–7 vs CHI, W 23–13 vs DAL. DET last 3: W 31–24 vs NYJ, L 26–32 vs CAR, W 45–21 vs ARI. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +4.4 vs +3.5 (0.9-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.9 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.3Context Adjustment +0.6Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.9 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.6 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT
LAR3-4-0@
LV3-4-0WIN PROBABILITYLAR 58.6%FINAL / MODEL35–21 / 25.8–23.0POINT SPREADLV · 49.2%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.9%TOP PICKLAR58.6%
LAR3-4-0@LV3-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LAR 25.8—LV 23.0
MONEYLINE
LAR WIN (58.6%)
MODELLAR -175
SPORTSBOOKLAR -175
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 48.8 (50.9%)
MODEL48.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 48.5
✓ WONSPREAD
LV +2.7 (49.2%)
MODEL+2.7
SPORTSBOOKLV +3.0
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LV is at home. The model favors LAR at 58.6% and projects LAR 25.8–LV 23.0. Key injuries: Nate Landman (LB, out), Trent McDuffie (CB, questionable), Puka Nacua (WR, questionable), Quay Walker (LB, questionable). LAR last 3: W 24–20 vs PHI, L 34–37 vs BUF, L 16–18 vs ARI. LV last 3: L 27–30 vs KC, L 17–45 vs NE, L 30–33 vs BUF. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.7 vs -3.0 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDTKC5-1-0@SEA4-3-0WIN PROBABILITYSEA 53.9%FINAL / MODEL3–20 / 21.0–22.2POINT SPREADKC · 54.9%OVER / UNDEROVER · 52.1%TOP PICKKC54.9%
KC5-1-0@SEA4-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
KC 21.0—SEA 22.2
SPREAD
KC +1.2 (54.9%)
MODEL+1.2
SPORTSBOOKKC +3.0
✕ LOSTMONEYLINE
SEA WIN (53.9%)
MODELSEA -142
SPORTSBOOKSEA -142
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 43.2 (52.1%)
MODEL43.2
SPORTSBOOKOVER 42.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SEA is at home. The model favors SEA at 53.9% and projects KC 21.0–SEA 22.2. Key injuries: Drew Lock (QB, questionable), Jaylon Moore (OT, out), Rashee Rice (WR, out), Chazz Surratt (LB, out). KC last 3: W 24–10 vs MIA, W 30–27 vs LV, W 22–6 vs LAC. SEA last 3: W 30–23 vs LAC, L 29–32 vs SF, L 14–17 vs DEN. Weather: 55°F, gusts 6 mph, precipitation 47%; model total adjustment -0.4. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.2 vs +3.0 (1.8-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.8 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.6Context Adjustment +0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.4 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.6 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.8 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALMon, Oct 26, 7:15 PM CDT
DAL3-4-0@
PHI2-5-0WIN PROBABILITYDAL 63.1%FINAL / MODEL38–21 / 23.5–19.8POINT SPREADPHI · 53.5%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.0%TOP PICKDAL63.1%
DAL3-4-0@PHI2-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DAL 23.5—PHI 19.8
MONEYLINE
DAL WIN (63.1%)
MODELDAL -218
SPORTSBOOKDAL -218
✓ WONSPREAD
PHI +3.6 (53.5%)
MODEL+3.6
SPORTSBOOKPHI +4.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 43.3 (51.0%)
MODEL43.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 43.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
PHI is at home. The model favors DAL at 63.1% and projects DAL 23.5–PHI 19.8. Key injuries: Drew Shelton (OT, out), Michael Carter II (CB, out), KaVontae Turpin (WR, out), Nolan Smith Jr. (LB, out). DAL last 3: W 34–30 vs HOU, L 16–24 vs TB, L 13–23 vs GB. PHI last 3: L 20–24 vs LAR, L 17–19 vs JAX, L 14–25 vs CAR. Weather: 59°F, gusts 12 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -3.6 vs -4.5 (0.9-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.9 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.3Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.9 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.