1
BALTEN at BAL
86.5%WIN
2
MINMIA at MIN
82.7%WIN
3
SEALAC at SEA
77.5%WIN
Week Progress16 of 16 final
16 Final0 In Progress0 Upcoming
Predictions Lockedv2.0.0 · 50,000 simulations
MODEL PERFORMANCE
How our picks performed
Win rates exclude pushes · hypothetical $10 per bet
Week 2 uses saved preview selections rather than official locked picks. Results are illustrative; see calculation details for historical pricing assumptions.
Historical coverage: No archived predictions for Week 1; excluded from calculations.
Last Week
Week 3Season to Date
2026 seasonHow are these calculated?
Win % is the historical accuracy of graded model selections: wins divided by wins plus losses, displayed to one decimal place. Pushes and pending bets are excluded. Dollar profit/loss is hypothetical, assuming $10 staked on each selection and saved sportsbook odds where available. Spread and total bets without saved prices use estimated −110 odds; when any selected moneyline price is missing, the dollar result shows N/A rather than inventing a return. Win rate can be positive while the betting strategy loses money.
Week 2 is evaluated using a saved September 18 preview, not verified original locked picks; some games may already have started when that file was created. VegasInsider prices are retrospective reference odds, and unmatched spread and total prices use estimated −110. These returns are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a live pregame track record.
Some older weeks have only summary results. Those weeks contribute to verified win/loss percentages, but profit is N/A if the individual betting odds are unavailable. A missing weekly Top 3 list is not reconstructed; only archived selections count toward Top 3. Weeks without any archived results are excluded, and the bet-by-bet drilldown displays only saved individual picks.
All Bets includes one moneyline, one spread and one over/under selection per game. Best / Game uses the highest-confidence selection in each game. Top 3 shows the three highest-confidence predictions from each week, regardless of market. Moneyline, Spread and Over/Under show the strongest selection in their respective markets per game. Season to Date totals the available archived weeks. These are modeled hypothetical returns, not actual betting winnings. The toggle changes the primary number, while both measures remain visible.
HISTORICAL SPORTSBOOK ODDSVegasInsider · 2026 Weeks 1–348 archived game lines · spreads, totals, and moneylines
Historical reference quotes from VegasInsider, collected October 13, 2026. These prices were viewed after kickoff and are not verified as the prices available when the model locked its predictions. They do not replace saved betting lines or create missing predictions for Weeks 1–2. Model Performance profit/loss remains based on saved pregame selections.
| Matchup | Spread & price | Over / Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB / ATL | GB -4.5 (-112)ATL +4.5 (-108) | Over 43.5 (-105)Under 43.5 (-115) | GB -238ATL +195 |
| DET / NYJ | DET -7 (-115)NYJ +7 (-105) | Over 49.5 (-110)Under 49.5 (-110) | DET -355NYJ +280 |
| IND / HOU | IND +1.5 (-108)HOU -1.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 (-110)Under 42.5 (-110) | IND +100HOU -120 |
| CLE / CAR | CLE +2.5 (-112)CAR -2.5 (-108) | Over 41.5 (-115)Under 41.5 (-105) | CLE +114CAR -135 |
| MIA / KC | MIA +10 (-112)KC -10 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-105)Under 45.5 (-115) | MIA +440KC -600 |
| WSH / SEA | WSH +8.5 (-115)SEA -8.5 (-105) | Over 40.5 (-108)Under 40.5 (-112) | WSH +320SEA -410 |
| JAX / NE | JAX -3 (-102)NE +3 (-118) | Over 46.5 (-115)Under 46.5 (-105) | JAX -155NE +130 |
| BUF / LAC | BUF -7 (-112)LAC +7 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-105)Under 50.5 (-115) | BUF -325LAC +260 |
| PIT / CIN | PIT +3.5 (-118)CIN -3.5 (-102) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | PIT +150CIN -180 |
| NYG / TEN | NYG -2.5 (-110)TEN +2.5 (-110) | Over 37.5 (-112)Under 37.5 (-108) | NYG -130TEN +110 |
| TB / MIN | TB -1.5 (-102)MIN +1.5 (-118) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | TB -115MIN -105 |
| SF / ARI | SF -7.5 (-110)ARI +7.5 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-105)Under 48.5 (-115) | SF -410ARI +310 |
| DAL / BAL | DAL +3 (-102)BAL -3 (-118) | Over 54.5 (-108)Under 54.5 (-112) | DAL +140BAL -166 |
| NO / LV | NO -4.5 (-105)LV +4.5 (-115) | Over 43.5 (-125)Under 43.5 (+105) | NO -225LV +180 |
| DEN / LAR | DEN -1.5 (-108)LAR +1.5 (-112) | Over 44.5 (-108)Under 44.5 (-112) | DEN -118LAR -102 |
| CHI / PHI | CHI +3 (-105)PHI -3 (-115) | Over 42.5 (-108)Under 42.5 (-112) | CHI +154PHI -185 |
View Week 2–3 current-model historical replays ↗
Table team order follows VegasInsider, not home/away order. Lines from a later sportsbook snapshot can differ from locked DraftKings lines; do not use a mismatched spread or total to price a historical bet.
THIS WEEK’S TOP PICKS
Week 4 · Ranked by model confidenceHighest-probability model predictions
1
IND -4.5IND at WSH
58.6%WIN
2
NYJ +3.5NYJ at CHI
56.4%LOSS
3
ATL +1.5ATL at NO
53.4%WIN
1
UNDER 51.5DET at CAR
52.8%LOSS
2
UNDER 47.5KC at LV
52.1%LOSS
3
OVER 43.5NYJ at CHI
51.5%LOSS
WEEKLY BOARD
16 Games · 16 Locked Predictions
HighestSecondThird
FINALThu, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CDT
PIT2-2-0@
CLE3-1-0WIN PROBABILITYPIT 59.0%FINAL / MODEL24–27 / 20.5–17.8POINT SPREADPIT · 50.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.8%TOP PICKPIT59.0%
PIT2-2-0@CLE3-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PIT 20.5—CLE 17.8
MONEYLINE
PIT WIN (59.0%)
MODELPIT -148
SPORTSBOOKPIT -148
✕ LOSTSPREAD
PIT -2.7 (50.9%)
MODEL-2.7
SPORTSBOOKPIT -2.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 38.3 (50.8%)
MODEL38.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 38.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CLE is at home. The model favors PIT at 59.0% and projects PIT 20.5–CLE 17.8. Key injuries: Tyson Campbell (CB, out), Rico Dowdle (RB, out), Tytus Howard (OT, questionable), Tylan Wallace (WR, questionable). PIT last 3: W 20–13 vs ATL, L 3–20 vs NE, W 30–27 vs CIN. CLE last 3: L 10–34 vs JAX, W 23–19 vs TB, W 21–18 vs CAR. Weather: 76°F, gusts 13 mph, precipitation 30%; model total adjustment -0.2. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.7 vs -2.5 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.2Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDTIND2-2-0@
WSH1-3-0WIN PROBABILITYIND 73.4%FINAL / MODEL30–13 / 26.6–20.0POINT SPREADIND · 58.6%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.2%TOP PICKIND73.4%
IND2-2-0@WSH1-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
IND 26.6—WSH 20.0
MONEYLINE
IND WIN (73.4%)
MODELIND -218
SPORTSBOOKIND -218
✓ WONSPREAD
IND -6.6 (58.6%)
MODEL-6.6
SPORTSBOOKIND -4.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 46.6 (50.2%)
MODEL46.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 46.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
WSH is at home. The model favors IND at 73.4% and projects IND 26.6–WSH 20.0. Key injuries: Jayden Daniels (QB, out), Keenan Allen (WR, out), Nick Cross (S, out), Sam Cosmi (G, out). IND last 3: L 23–41 vs BAL, L 30–33 vs KC, W 19–17 vs HOU. WSH last 3: L 22–24 vs PHI, L 20–37 vs DAL, W 33–31 vs SEA. Weather: 70°F; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -6.6 vs -4.5 (2.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 2.1 ptsInjury Adjustment -2.5Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-2.5 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET2.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
ARI1-3-0@
NYG3-1-0WIN PROBABILITYARI 56.1%FINAL / MODEL24–36 / 23.2–21.2POINT SPREADNYG · 52.0%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.1%TOP PICKARI56.1%
ARI1-3-0@NYG3-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
ARI 23.2—NYG 21.2
MONEYLINE
ARI WIN (56.1%)
MODELARI -135
SPORTSBOOKARI -135
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NYG +2.1 (52.0%)
MODEL+2.1
SPORTSBOOKNYG +2.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 44.4 (50.1%)
MODEL44.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 44.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NYG is at home. The model favors ARI at 56.1% and projects ARI 23.2–NYG 21.2. Key injuries: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, out), Josh Sweat (LB, questionable). ARI last 3: W 26–14 vs LAC, L 7–31 vs SEA, L 30–36 vs SF. NYG last 3: W 28–20 vs DAL, L 6–28 vs LAR, W 12–7 vs TEN. Weather: 64°F, gusts 10 mph, precipitation 37%; model total adjustment -0.3. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.1 vs -2.5 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.3 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
DAL2-2-0@
HOU0-4-0WIN PROBABILITYHOU 59.2%FINAL / MODEL34–30 / 22.8–25.6POINT SPREADDAL · 48.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.1%TOP PICKHOU59.2%
DAL2-2-0@HOU0-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DAL 22.8—HOU 25.6
MONEYLINE
HOU WIN (59.2%)
MODELHOU -148
SPORTSBOOKHOU -148
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 48.4 (50.1%)
MODEL48.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 48.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
DAL +2.8 (48.9%)
MODEL+2.8
SPORTSBOOKDAL +3.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
HOU is at home. The model favors HOU at 59.2% and projects DAL 22.8–HOU 25.6. Key injuries: Cobie Durant (CB, out), Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, out), DeMarvion Overshown (LB, out), Jadeveon Clowney (DE, questionable). DAL last 3: L 20–28 vs NYG, W 37–20 vs WSH, L 31–34 vs BAL. HOU last 3: L 31–36 vs BUF, L 6–20 vs CIN, L 17–19 vs IND. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +2.8 vs +3.0 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
GB2-2-0@
TB0-4-0WIN PROBABILITYGB 59.0%FINAL / MODEL17–14 / 20.9–18.1POINT SPREADTB · 49.0%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.2%TOP PICKGB59.0%
GB2-2-0@TB0-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
GB 20.9—TB 18.1
MONEYLINE
GB WIN (59.0%)
MODELGB -166
SPORTSBOOKGB -166
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 39.0 (51.2%)
MODEL39.0
SPORTSBOOKOVER 38.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
TB +2.7 (49.0%)
MODEL+2.7
SPORTSBOOKTB +3.0
— PUSHWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TB is at home. The model favors GB at 59.0% and projects GB 20.9–TB 18.1. Key injuries: Benjamin Morrison (CB, out), Jacob Monk (C, out), Ko Kieft (TE, out), Rueben Bain Jr. (LB, out). GB last 3: L 22–39 vs MIN, W 20–17 vs NYJ, L 14–35 vs ATL. TB last 3: L 27–33 vs CIN, L 19–23 vs CLE, L 16–23 vs MIN. Weather: 88°F, gusts 10 mph, precipitation 18%; model total adjustment -0.2. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.7 vs -3.0 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment -0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
JAX3-1-0@
CIN2-2-0WIN PROBABILITYCIN 55.3%FINAL / MODEL22–17 / 24.6–26.4POINT SPREADJAX · 52.6%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.4%TOP PICKCIN55.3%
JAX3-1-0@CIN2-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
JAX 24.6—CIN 26.4
MONEYLINE
CIN WIN (55.3%)
MODELCIN -142
SPORTSBOOKCIN -142
✕ LOSTSPREAD
JAX +1.8 (52.6%)
MODEL+1.8
SPORTSBOOKJAX +2.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 51.0 (51.4%)
MODEL51.0
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 51.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CIN is at home. The model favors CIN at 55.3% and projects JAX 24.6–CIN 26.4. Key injuries: Kyle Dugger (S, out), Christian Braswell (CB, questionable), Montaric Brown (CB, questionable), Bryan Cook (S, questionable). JAX last 3: W 34–10 vs CLE, L 13–20 vs DEN, W 35–6 vs NE. CIN last 3: W 33–27 vs TB, W 20–6 vs HOU, L 27–30 vs PIT. Weather: 71°F, gusts 7 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.8 vs +2.5 (0.7-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.7 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.7 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
LAR2-2-0@
PHI2-2-0WIN PROBABILITYLAR 65.3%FINAL / MODEL24–20 / 23.5–19.2POINT SPREADLAR · 53.3%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.6%TOP PICKLAR65.3%
LAR2-2-0@PHI2-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LAR 23.5—PHI 19.2
MONEYLINE
LAR WIN (65.3%)
MODELLAR -180
SPORTSBOOKLAR -180
✓ WONSPREAD
LAR -4.3 (53.3%)
MODEL-4.3
SPORTSBOOKLAR -3.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 42.7 (50.6%)
MODEL42.7
SPORTSBOOKOVER 42.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
PHI is at home. The model favors LAR at 65.3% and projects LAR 23.5–PHI 19.2. Key injuries: Fred Johnson (OT, out), Hollywood Brown (WR, out), Jaylen Watson (CB, out), Marcus Epps (S, out). LAR last 3: L 7–27 vs SF, W 28–6 vs NYG, L 26–30 vs DEN. PHI last 3: W 24–22 vs WSH, W 24–20 vs TEN, L 7–27 vs CHI. Weather: 62°F, gusts 15 mph, precipitation 34%; model total adjustment -0.3. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -4.3 vs -3.5 (0.8-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.8 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.4Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.3 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.4 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.8 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
NE2-2-0@
BUF3-1-0WIN PROBABILITYBUF 72.4%FINAL / MODEL29–26 / 21.9–28.3POINT SPREADNE · 50.1%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.4%TOP PICKBUF72.4%
NE2-2-0@BUF3-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NE 21.9—BUF 28.3
MONEYLINE
BUF WIN (72.4%)
MODELBUF -305
SPORTSBOOKBUF -305
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 50.1 (51.4%)
MODEL50.1
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 50.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NE +6.4 (50.1%)
MODEL+6.4
SPORTSBOOKNE +7.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
BUF is at home. The model favors BUF at 72.4% and projects NE 21.9–BUF 28.3. Key injuries: Tyrell Shavers (WR, out), Channing Canada (CB, out), T.J. Sanders (DT, doubtful), Christian Benford (CB, questionable). NE last 3: L 10–13 vs SEA, W 20–3 vs PIT, L 6–35 vs JAX. BUF last 3: W 36–31 vs HOU, W 41–31 vs DET, W 24–16 vs LAC. Weather: 49°F, gusts 4 mph, precipitation 25%; model total adjustment -0.2. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +6.4 vs +7.0 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDTNYJ1-3-0@CHI3-1-0WIN PROBABILITYCHI 55.5%FINAL / MODEL12–23 / 21.0–23.0POINT SPREADNYJ · 56.4%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.5%TOP PICKNYJ56.4%
NYJ1-3-0@CHI3-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NYJ 21.0—CHI 23.0
SPREAD
NYJ +1.9 (56.4%)
MODEL+1.9
SPORTSBOOKNYJ +3.5
✕ LOSTMONEYLINE
CHI WIN (55.5%)
MODELCHI -185
SPORTSBOOKCHI -185
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 44.0 (51.5%)
MODEL44.0
SPORTSBOOKOVER 43.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CHI is at home. The model favors CHI at 55.5% and projects NYJ 21.0–CHI 23.0. Key injuries: Caleb Williams (QB, out), Kyler Gordon (CB, out), Adonai Mitchell (WR, out), Dylan Parham (G, out). NYJ last 3: W 23–10 vs TEN, L 17–20 vs GB, L 24–31 vs DET. CHI last 3: W 59–37 vs CAR, L 3–9 vs MIN, W 27–7 vs PHI. Weather: 69°F, gusts 13 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.9 vs +3.5 (1.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.6 ptsInjury Adjustment -2.0Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-2.0 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
TEN0-4-0@BAL3-1-0WIN PROBABILITYBAL 86.5%FINAL / MODEL18–24 / 15.2–26.5POINT SPREADTEN · 50.6%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.3%TOP PICKBAL86.5%
TEN0-4-0@BAL3-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
TEN 15.2—BAL 26.5
MONEYLINE
BAL WIN (86.5%)
MODELBAL -700
SPORTSBOOKBAL -700
✓ WONSPREAD
TEN +11.3 (50.6%)
MODEL+11.3
SPORTSBOOKTEN +11.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 41.8 (50.3%)
MODEL41.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
BAL is at home. The model favors BAL at 86.5% and projects TEN 15.2–BAL 26.5. Key injuries: Ronnie Stanley (OT, questionable), Chris Moore (WR, questionable), Zay Flowers (WR, questionable), Garrett Dellinger (G, questionable). TEN last 3: L 10–23 vs NYJ, L 20–24 vs PHI, L 7–12 vs NYG. BAL last 3: W 41–23 vs IND, L 17–24 vs NO, W 34–31 vs DAL. Weather: 62°F, gusts 10 mph, precipitation 46%; model total adjustment -0.3. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +11.3 vs +11.5 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.3 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 3:05 PM CDT
MIA0-4-0@MIN4-0-0WIN PROBABILITYMIN 82.7%FINAL / MODEL10–15 / 14.6–24.4POINT SPREADMIA · 48.5%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.0%TOP PICKMIN82.7%
MIA0-4-0@MIN4-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
MIA 14.6—MIN 24.4
MONEYLINE
MIN WIN (82.7%)
MODELMIN -520
SPORTSBOOKMIN -520
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 38.9 (51.0%)
MODEL38.9
SPORTSBOOKOVER 38.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
MIA +9.8 (48.5%)
MODEL+9.8
SPORTSBOOKMIA +10.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
MIN is at home. The model favors MIN at 82.7% and projects MIA 14.6–MIN 24.4. Key injuries: Justin Jefferson (WR, out), Charles Demmings (CB, out), Robert Beal Jr. (DE, out), Caleb Douglas (WR, out). MIA last 3: L 13–27 vs LV, L 13–35 vs SF, L 10–24 vs KC. MIN last 3: W 39–22 vs GB, W 9–3 vs CHI, W 23–16 vs TB. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +9.8 vs +10.0 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
DEN2-2-0@
SF4-0-0WIN PROBABILITYSF 62.1%FINAL / MODEL14–24 / 22.4–25.9POINT SPREADSF · 50.1%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.5%TOP PICKSF62.1%
DEN2-2-0@SF4-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DEN 22.4—SF 25.9
MONEYLINE
SF WIN (62.1%)
MODELSF -148
SPORTSBOOKSF -148
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 48.3 (50.5%)
MODEL48.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 48.5
✓ WONSPREAD
SF -3.5 (50.1%)
MODEL-3.5
SPORTSBOOKSF -3.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SF is at home. The model favors SF at 62.1% and projects DEN 22.4–SF 25.9. Key injuries: Mykel Williams (DE, out), Dondrea Tillman (LB, out), Jonathon Cooper (LB, out), Nick Gargiulo (G, out). DEN last 3: L 10–31 vs KC, W 20–13 vs JAX, W 30–26 vs LAR. SF last 3: W 27–7 vs LAR, W 35–13 vs MIA, W 36–30 vs ARI. Weather: 92°F, gusts 8 mph; model total adjustment -0.1. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.5 vs +3.0 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.1 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDTKC4-0-0@
LV3-1-0WIN PROBABILITYKC 65.1%FINAL / MODEL30–27 / 25.6–21.3POINT SPREADLV · 50.6%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 52.1%TOP PICKKC65.1%
KC4-0-0@LV3-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
KC 25.6—LV 21.3
MONEYLINE
KC WIN (65.1%)
MODELKC -225
SPORTSBOOKKC -225
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 46.9 (52.1%)
MODEL46.9
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 47.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
LV +4.3 (50.6%)
MODEL+4.3
SPORTSBOOKLV +4.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LV is at home. The model favors KC at 65.1% and projects KC 25.6–LV 21.3. Key injuries: Josh Simmons (OT, out), Jackson Powers-Johnson (G, out), Omarr Norman-Lott (DT, out). KC last 3: W 31–10 vs DEN, W 33–30 vs IND, W 24–10 vs MIA. LV last 3: W 27–13 vs MIA, W 26–14 vs LAC, W 35–27 vs NO. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -4.3 vs -4.5 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
LAC0-4-0@SEA3-1-0WIN PROBABILITYSEA 77.5%FINAL / MODEL23–30 / 17.5–25.4POINT SPREADSEA · 51.5%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.4%TOP PICKSEA77.5%
LAC0-4-0@SEA3-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LAC 17.5—SEA 25.4
MONEYLINE
SEA WIN (77.5%)
MODELSEA -375
SPORTSBOOKSEA -375
✓ WONSPREAD
SEA -7.9 (51.5%)
MODEL-7.9
SPORTSBOOKSEA -7.0
— PUSHTOTAL
OVER 42.9 (51.4%)
MODEL42.9
SPORTSBOOKOVER 42.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SEA is at home. The model favors SEA at 77.5% and projects LAC 17.5–SEA 25.4. Key injuries: Brenen Thompson (WR, out), Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, out), Charlie Kolar (TE, out), Zach Charbonnet (RB, out). LAC last 3: L 14–26 vs ARI, L 14–26 vs LV, L 16–24 vs BUF. SEA last 3: W 13–10 vs NE, W 31–7 vs ARI, L 31–33 vs WSH. Weather: 67°F, gusts 7 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.9 vs +7.0 (0.9-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.9 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.3Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.9 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 4, 7:20 PM CDTDET2-2-0@
CAR2-2-0WIN PROBABILITYDET 61.6%FINAL / MODEL26–32 / 27.0–23.6POINT SPREADCAR · 50.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 52.8%TOP PICKDET61.6%
DET2-2-0@CAR2-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DET 27.0—CAR 23.6
MONEYLINE
DET WIN (61.6%)
MODELDET -192
SPORTSBOOKDET -192
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 50.5 (52.8%)
MODEL50.5
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 51.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
CAR +3.4 (50.4%)
MODEL+3.4
SPORTSBOOKCAR +3.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CAR is at home. The model favors DET at 61.6% and projects DET 27.0–CAR 23.6. Key injuries: Damien Lewis (G, out), Ben Bartch (G, out), Brian Branch (S, out), Jalen Coker (WR, questionable). DET last 3: W 31–30 vs NO, L 31–41 vs BUF, W 31–24 vs NYJ. CAR last 3: L 37–59 vs CHI, W 34–3 vs ATL, L 18–21 vs CLE. Weather: 66°F, gusts 6 mph, precipitation 60%; model total adjustment -0.4. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -3.4 vs -3.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.4 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALMon, Oct 5, 7:15 PM CDTATL2-2-0@
NO1-3-0WIN PROBABILITYNO 50.7%FINAL / MODEL45–24 / 23.2–23.9POINT SPREADATL · 53.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.3%TOP PICKATL53.4%
ATL2-2-0@NO1-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
ATL 23.2—NO 23.9
SPREAD
ATL +0.7 (53.4%)
MODEL+0.7
SPORTSBOOKATL +1.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 47.0 (51.3%)
MODEL47.0
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 47.5
✕ LOSTMONEYLINE
NO WIN (50.7%)
MODELNO -122
SPORTSBOOKNO -122
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NO is at home. The model favors NO at 50.7% and projects ATL 23.2–NO 23.9. Key injuries: Carl Granderson (DE, out), Anfernee Jennings (LB, out), Kaden Elliss (LB, out), Samson Ebukam (DE, questionable). ATL last 3: L 13–20 vs PIT, L 3–34 vs CAR, W 35–14 vs GB. NO last 3: L 30–31 vs DET, W 24–17 vs BAL, L 27–35 vs LV. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +0.7 vs +1.5 (0.8-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.8 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.3Context Adjustment -0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.8 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.