1
KCKC at MIA
85.0%WIN
2
SFARI at SF
78.8%WIN
3
BUFLAC at BUF
76.2%WIN
Week Progress16 of 16 final
16 Final0 In Progress0 Upcoming
Predictions Lockedv2.0.0 · 50,000 simulations
MODEL PERFORMANCE
How our picks performed
Win rates exclude pushes · hypothetical $10 per bet
Week 2 uses saved preview selections rather than official locked picks. Results are illustrative; see calculation details for historical pricing assumptions.
Historical coverage: No archived predictions for Week 1; excluded from calculations.
Last Week
Week 2Season to Date
2026 seasonHow are these calculated?
Win % is the historical accuracy of graded model selections: wins divided by wins plus losses, displayed to one decimal place. Pushes and pending bets are excluded. Dollar profit/loss is hypothetical, assuming $10 staked on each selection and saved sportsbook odds where available. Spread and total bets without saved prices use estimated −110 odds; when any selected moneyline price is missing, the dollar result shows N/A rather than inventing a return. Win rate can be positive while the betting strategy loses money.
Week 2 is evaluated using a saved September 18 preview, not verified original locked picks; some games may already have started when that file was created. VegasInsider prices are retrospective reference odds, and unmatched spread and total prices use estimated −110. These returns are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a live pregame track record.
Some older weeks have only summary results. Those weeks contribute to verified win/loss percentages, but profit is N/A if the individual betting odds are unavailable. A missing weekly Top 3 list is not reconstructed; only archived selections count toward Top 3. Weeks without any archived results are excluded, and the bet-by-bet drilldown displays only saved individual picks.
All Bets includes one moneyline, one spread and one over/under selection per game. Best / Game uses the highest-confidence selection in each game. Top 3 shows the three highest-confidence predictions from each week, regardless of market. Moneyline, Spread and Over/Under show the strongest selection in their respective markets per game. Season to Date totals the available archived weeks. These are modeled hypothetical returns, not actual betting winnings. The toggle changes the primary number, while both measures remain visible.
HISTORICAL SPORTSBOOK ODDSVegasInsider · 2026 Weeks 1–348 archived game lines · spreads, totals, and moneylines
Historical reference quotes from VegasInsider, collected October 13, 2026. These prices were viewed after kickoff and are not verified as the prices available when the model locked its predictions. They do not replace saved betting lines or create missing predictions for Weeks 1–2. Model Performance profit/loss remains based on saved pregame selections.
| Matchup | Spread & price | Over / Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB / ATL | GB -4.5 (-112)ATL +4.5 (-108) | Over 43.5 (-105)Under 43.5 (-115) | GB -238ATL +195 |
| DET / NYJ | DET -7 (-115)NYJ +7 (-105) | Over 49.5 (-110)Under 49.5 (-110) | DET -355NYJ +280 |
| IND / HOU | IND +1.5 (-108)HOU -1.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 (-110)Under 42.5 (-110) | IND +100HOU -120 |
| CLE / CAR | CLE +2.5 (-112)CAR -2.5 (-108) | Over 41.5 (-115)Under 41.5 (-105) | CLE +114CAR -135 |
| MIA / KC | MIA +10 (-112)KC -10 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-105)Under 45.5 (-115) | MIA +440KC -600 |
| WSH / SEA | WSH +8.5 (-115)SEA -8.5 (-105) | Over 40.5 (-108)Under 40.5 (-112) | WSH +320SEA -410 |
| JAX / NE | JAX -3 (-102)NE +3 (-118) | Over 46.5 (-115)Under 46.5 (-105) | JAX -155NE +130 |
| BUF / LAC | BUF -7 (-112)LAC +7 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-105)Under 50.5 (-115) | BUF -325LAC +260 |
| PIT / CIN | PIT +3.5 (-118)CIN -3.5 (-102) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | PIT +150CIN -180 |
| NYG / TEN | NYG -2.5 (-110)TEN +2.5 (-110) | Over 37.5 (-112)Under 37.5 (-108) | NYG -130TEN +110 |
| TB / MIN | TB -1.5 (-102)MIN +1.5 (-118) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | TB -115MIN -105 |
| SF / ARI | SF -7.5 (-110)ARI +7.5 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-105)Under 48.5 (-115) | SF -410ARI +310 |
| DAL / BAL | DAL +3 (-102)BAL -3 (-118) | Over 54.5 (-108)Under 54.5 (-112) | DAL +140BAL -166 |
| NO / LV | NO -4.5 (-105)LV +4.5 (-115) | Over 43.5 (-125)Under 43.5 (+105) | NO -225LV +180 |
| DEN / LAR | DEN -1.5 (-108)LAR +1.5 (-112) | Over 44.5 (-108)Under 44.5 (-112) | DEN -118LAR -102 |
| CHI / PHI | CHI +3 (-105)PHI -3 (-115) | Over 42.5 (-108)Under 42.5 (-112) | CHI +154PHI -185 |
View Week 2–3 current-model historical replays ↗
Table team order follows VegasInsider, not home/away order. Lines from a later sportsbook snapshot can differ from locked DraftKings lines; do not use a mismatched spread or total to price a historical bet.
THIS WEEK’S TOP PICKS
Week 3 · Ranked by model confidenceHighest-probability model predictions
1
PHI -4.5PHI at CHI
57.4%LOSS
2
TEN +2.5TEN at NYG
56.8%LOSS
3
MIA +11.5KC at MIA
53.3%LOSS
1
OVER 41.5PHI at CHI
51.6%LOSS
2
UNDER 42.5CAR at CLE
51.6%WIN
3
OVER 42.5HOU at IND
51.4%LOSS
WEEKLY BOARD
16 Games · 16 Locked Predictions
HighestSecondThird
FINALThu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CDT
ATL1-2-0@
GB1-2-0WIN PROBABILITYGB 68.8%FINAL / MODEL35–14 / 19.1–24.5POINT SPREADATL · 50.5%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.1%TOP PICKGB68.8%
ATL1-2-0@GB1-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
ATL 19.1—GB 24.5
MONEYLINE
GB WIN (68.8%)
MODELGB -270
SPORTSBOOKGB -270
✕ LOSTSPREAD
ATL +5.4 (50.5%)
MODEL+5.4
SPORTSBOOKATL +5.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 43.6 (50.1%)
MODEL43.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 43.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
GB is at home. The model favors GB at 68.8% and projects ATL 19.1–GB 24.5. Key injuries: Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, out), Jayden Reed (WR, doubtful), Anthony Belton (OT, questionable), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, questionable). ATL last 2: L 13–20 vs PIT, L 3–34 vs CAR. GB last 2: L 22–39 vs MIN, W 20–17 vs NYJ. Weather: 60°F, gusts 8 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +5.4 vs +5.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.4Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.4 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDTCAR1-2-0@
CLE2-1-0WIN PROBABILITYCAR 57.8%FINAL / MODEL18–21 / 22.2–19.8POINT SPREADCLE · 50.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.6%TOP PICKCAR57.8%
CAR1-2-0@CLE2-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CAR 22.2—CLE 19.8
MONEYLINE
CAR WIN (57.8%)
MODELCAR -148
SPORTSBOOKCAR -148
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 42.0 (51.6%)
MODEL42.0
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 42.5
✓ WONSPREAD
CLE +2.4 (50.4%)
MODEL+2.4
SPORTSBOOKCLE +2.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CLE is at home. The model favors CAR at 57.8% and projects CAR 22.2–CLE 19.8. Key injuries: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, out), Jonathon Brooks (RB, doubtful), Tyson Campbell (CB, questionable), Teven Jenkins (G, questionable). CAR last 2: L 37–59 vs CHI, W 34–3 vs ATL. CLE last 2: L 10–34 vs JAX, W 23–19 vs TB. Weather: 67°F, gusts 17 mph; model total adjustment -0.2. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.4 vs -2.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
CIN2-1-0@
PIT2-1-0WIN PROBABILITYCIN 60.5%FINAL / MODEL27–30 / 22.9–19.8POINT SPREADPIT · 51.3%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.5%TOP PICKCIN60.5%
CIN2-1-0@PIT2-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CIN 22.9—PIT 19.8
MONEYLINE
CIN WIN (60.5%)
MODELCIN -192
SPORTSBOOKCIN -192
✕ LOSTSPREAD
PIT +3.2 (51.3%)
MODEL+3.2
SPORTSBOOKPIT +3.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 42.7 (50.5%)
MODEL42.7
SPORTSBOOKOVER 42.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
PIT is at home. The model favors CIN at 60.5% and projects CIN 22.9–PIT 19.8. Key injuries: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, questionable), Joey Porter Jr. (CB, questionable), B.J. Hill (DT, questionable), Rico Dowdle (RB, questionable). CIN last 2: W 33–27 vs TB, W 20–6 vs HOU. PIT last 2: W 20–13 vs ATL, L 3–20 vs NE. Weather: 68°F, gusts 14 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -3.2 vs -3.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDTHOU0-3-0@
IND1-2-0WIN PROBABILITYHOU 58.3%FINAL / MODEL17–19 / 22.8–20.2POINT SPREADIND · 49.8%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.4%TOP PICKHOU58.3%
HOU0-3-0@IND1-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
HOU 22.8—IND 20.2
MONEYLINE
HOU WIN (58.3%)
MODELHOU -148
SPORTSBOOKHOU -148
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 43.0 (51.4%)
MODEL43.0
SPORTSBOOKOVER 42.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
IND +2.6 (49.8%)
MODEL+2.6
SPORTSBOOKIND +3.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
IND is at home. The model favors HOU at 58.3% and projects HOU 22.8–IND 20.2. Key injuries: Alec Pierce (WR, doubtful), Ashton Dulin (WR, questionable), Charvarius Ward (CB, questionable), Jadeveon Clowney (DE, questionable). HOU last 2: L 31–36 vs BUF, L 6–20 vs CIN. IND last 2: L 23–41 vs BAL, L 30–33 vs KC. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.6 vs -3.0 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDTKC3-0-0@MIA0-3-0WIN PROBABILITYKC 85.0%FINAL / MODEL24–10 / 28.1–17.4POINT SPREADMIA · 53.3%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.2%TOP PICKKC85.0%
KC3-0-0@MIA0-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
KC 28.1—MIA 17.4
MONEYLINE
KC WIN (85.0%)
MODELKC -900
SPORTSBOOKKC -900
✓ WONSPREAD
MIA +10.7 (53.3%)
MODEL+10.7
SPORTSBOOKMIA +11.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 45.4 (50.2%)
MODEL45.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 45.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
MIA is at home. The model favors KC at 85.0% and projects KC 28.1–MIA 17.4. Key injuries: Omarr Norman-Lott (DT, out), Caleb Douglas (WR, questionable), Robert Beal Jr. (DE, questionable), Chop Robinson (LB, questionable). KC last 2: W 31–10 vs DEN, W 33–30 vs IND. MIA last 2: L 13–27 vs LV, L 13–35 vs SF. Weather: 85°F, gusts 4 mph, precipitation 10%; model total adjustment -0.1. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -10.7 vs -11.5 (0.8-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.8 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.8 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
LAC0-3-0@BUF3-0-0WIN PROBABILITYBUF 76.2%FINAL / MODEL16–24 / 21.3–28.9POINT SPREADBUF · 50.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.9%TOP PICKBUF76.2%
LAC0-3-0@BUF3-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LAC 21.3—BUF 28.9
MONEYLINE
BUF WIN (76.2%)
MODELBUF -345
SPORTSBOOKBUF -345
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 50.2 (50.9%)
MODEL50.2
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 50.5
✓ WONSPREAD
BUF -7.6 (50.4%)
MODEL-7.6
SPORTSBOOKBUF -7.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
BUF is at home. The model favors BUF at 76.2% and projects LAC 21.3–BUF 28.9. Key injuries: Tyrell Shavers (WR, out), Charlie Kolar (TE, out), Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, doubtful), Trey Pipkins III (OT, questionable). LAC last 2: L 14–26 vs ARI, L 14–26 vs LV. BUF last 2: W 36–31 vs HOU, W 41–31 vs DET. Weather: 70°F; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.6 vs +7.0 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment +0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
NYJ1-2-0@
DET2-1-0WIN PROBABILITYDET 75.1%FINAL / MODEL24–31 / 20.3–27.5POINT SPREADDET · 53.2%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.2%TOP PICKDET75.1%
NYJ1-2-0@DET2-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NYJ 20.3—DET 27.5
MONEYLINE
DET WIN (75.1%)
MODELDET -305
SPORTSBOOKDET -305
✓ WONSPREAD
DET -7.2 (53.2%)
MODEL-7.2
SPORTSBOOKDET -6.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 47.9 (51.2%)
MODEL47.9
SPORTSBOOKOVER 47.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DET is at home. The model favors DET at 75.1% and projects NYJ 20.3–DET 27.5. Key injuries: Mason Taylor (TE, doubtful), Blake Miller (OT, questionable), Christian Mahogany (G, questionable), Kene Nwangwu (RB, questionable). NYJ last 2: W 23–10 vs TEN, L 17–20 vs GB. DET last 2: W 31–30 vs NO, L 31–41 vs BUF. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.2 vs +6.5 (0.7-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.7 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment +0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.7 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
SEA2-1-0@
WSH1-2-0WIN PROBABILITYSEA 71.4%FINAL / MODEL31–33 / 23.1–17.0POINT SPREADWSH · 51.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.4%TOP PICKSEA71.4%
SEA2-1-0@WSH1-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
SEA 23.1—WSH 17.0
MONEYLINE
SEA WIN (71.4%)
MODELSEA -298
SPORTSBOOKSEA -298
✕ LOSTSPREAD
WSH +6.0 (51.9%)
MODEL+6.0
SPORTSBOOKWSH +7.0
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 40.1 (51.4%)
MODEL40.1
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 40.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
WSH is at home. The model favors SEA at 71.4% and projects SEA 23.1–WSH 17.0. Key injuries: Sam Darnold (QB, questionable), Frankie Luvu (LB, questionable), Chig Okonkwo (TE, questionable), Brandon Coleman (G, questionable). SEA last 2: W 13–10 vs NE, W 31–7 vs ARI. WSH last 2: L 22–24 vs PHI, L 20–37 vs DAL. Weather: 72°F, gusts 25 mph, precipitation 2%; model total adjustment -1.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -6.0 vs -7.0 (1.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.8Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-1.0 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.8 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDTTEN0-3-0@
NYG2-1-0WIN PROBABILITYNYG 51.3%FINAL / MODEL7–12 / 19.2–20.0POINT SPREADTEN · 56.8%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.1%TOP PICKTEN56.8%
TEN0-3-0@NYG2-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
TEN 19.2—NYG 20.0
SPREAD
TEN +0.8 (56.8%)
MODEL+0.8
SPORTSBOOKTEN +2.5
✕ LOSTMONEYLINE
NYG WIN (51.3%)
MODELNYG -135
SPORTSBOOKNYG -135
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 39.2 (51.1%)
MODEL39.2
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 39.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NYG is at home. The model favors NYG at 51.3% and projects TEN 19.2–NYG 20.0. Key injuries: Jaxson Dart (QB, doubtful), Andrew Thomas (OT, questionable), Malik Nabers (WR, questionable), Cor'Dale Flott (CB, questionable). TEN last 2: L 10–23 vs NYJ, L 20–24 vs PHI. NYG last 2: W 28–20 vs DAL, L 6–28 vs LAR. Weather: 67°F, gusts 23 mph, precipitation 25%; model total adjustment -1.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +0.8 vs +2.5 (1.7-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.7 ptsInjury Adjustment -1.8Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-1.0 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-1.8 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.7 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
NE1-2-0@
JAX2-1-0WIN PROBABILITYJAX 59.7%FINAL / MODEL6–35 / 21.4–24.3POINT SPREADNE · 48.1%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.7%TOP PICKJAX59.7%
NE1-2-0@JAX2-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NE 21.4—JAX 24.3
MONEYLINE
JAX WIN (59.7%)
MODELJAX -155
SPORTSBOOKJAX -155
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 45.7 (50.7%)
MODEL45.7
SPORTSBOOKOVER 45.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NE +2.9 (48.1%)
MODEL+2.9
SPORTSBOOKNE +3.0
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
JAX is at home. The model favors JAX at 59.7% and projects NE 21.4–JAX 24.3. Key injuries: Dametrious Crownover (OT, questionable), Carlton Davis III (CB, questionable), DaVon Hamilton (DT, questionable), Dell Pettus (S, questionable). NE last 2: L 10–13 vs SEA, W 20–3 vs PIT. JAX last 2: W 34–10 vs CLE, L 13–20 vs DEN. Weather: 82°F, gusts 4 mph, precipitation 1%; model total adjustment -0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +2.9 vs +3.0 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
ARI1-2-0@SF3-0-0WIN PROBABILITYSF 78.8%FINAL / MODEL30–36 / 19.6–28.0POINT SPREADARI · 50.3%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.7%TOP PICKSF78.8%
ARI1-2-0@SF3-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
ARI 19.6—SF 28.0
MONEYLINE
SF WIN (78.8%)
MODELSF -485
SPORTSBOOKSF -485
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 47.6 (50.7%)
MODEL47.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 47.5
✓ WONSPREAD
ARI +8.4 (50.3%)
MODEL+8.4
SPORTSBOOKARI +8.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SF is at home. The model favors SF at 78.8% and projects ARI 19.6–SF 28.0. Key injuries: Demarcus Robinson (WR, out), Brandon Aiyuk (WR, out), Will Johnson (CB, out), James Thompson Jr. (DT, doubtful). ARI last 2: W 26–14 vs LAC, L 7–31 vs SEA. SF last 2: W 27–7 vs LAR, W 35–13 vs MIA. Weather: 72°F, gusts 14 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +8.4 vs +8.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.3Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
MIN3-0-0@
TB0-3-0WIN PROBABILITYMIN 53.0%FINAL / MODEL23–16 / 21.9–20.7POINT SPREADTB · 51.1%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.0%TOP PICKMIN53.0%
MIN3-0-0@TB0-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
MIN 21.9—TB 20.7
MONEYLINE
MIN WIN (53.0%)
MODELMIN -120
SPORTSBOOKMIN -120
✓ WONSPREAD
TB +1.2 (51.1%)
MODEL+1.2
SPORTSBOOKTB +1.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 42.6 (50.0%)
MODEL42.6
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 42.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TB is at home. The model favors MIN at 53.0% and projects MIN 21.9–TB 20.7. Key injuries: Jacob Parrish (CB, questionable), Jauan Jennings (WR, questionable), Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (DE, questionable), Brett Thorson (P, questionable). MIN last 2: W 39–22 vs GB, W 9–3 vs CHI. TB last 2: L 27–33 vs CIN, L 19–23 vs CLE. Weather: 87°F, gusts 4 mph, precipitation 3%; model total adjustment -0.1. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -1.2 vs -1.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
BAL2-1-0@
DAL1-2-0WIN PROBABILITYBAL 61.4%FINAL / MODEL34–31 / 28.0–24.6POINT SPREADDAL · 50.3%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.1%TOP PICKBAL61.4%
BAL2-1-0@DAL1-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
BAL 28.0—DAL 24.6
MONEYLINE
BAL WIN (61.4%)
MODELBAL -180
SPORTSBOOKBAL -180
✓ WONSPREAD
DAL +3.4 (50.3%)
MODEL+3.4
SPORTSBOOKDAL +3.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 52.6 (50.1%)
MODEL52.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 52.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DAL is at home. The model favors BAL at 61.4% and projects BAL 28.0–DAL 24.6. Key injuries: Cobie Durant (CB, out), P.J. Locke (S, out), Malik Hooker (S, doubtful), Ronnie Stanley (OT, questionable). BAL last 2: W 41–23 vs IND, L 17–24 vs NO. DAL last 2: L 20–28 vs NYG, W 37–20 vs WSH. Weather: 70°F; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -3.4 vs -3.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
LV3-0-0@
NO1-2-0WIN PROBABILITYNO 63.3%FINAL / MODEL35–27 / 20.3–24.2POINT SPREADNO · 51.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.3%TOP PICKNO63.3%
LV3-0-0@NO1-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LV 20.3—NO 24.2
MONEYLINE
NO WIN (63.3%)
MODELNO -185
SPORTSBOOKNO -185
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NO -3.8 (51.4%)
MODEL-3.8
SPORTSBOOKNO -3.0
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 44.5 (50.3%)
MODEL44.5
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 44.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NO is at home. The model favors NO at 63.3% and projects LV 20.3–NO 24.2. Key injuries: Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, out), Aidan O'Connell (QB, questionable), Martin Emerson Jr. (CB, questionable), Darien Porter (CB, questionable). LV last 2: W 27–13 vs MIA, W 26–14 vs LAC. NO last 2: L 30–31 vs DET, W 24–17 vs BAL. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.8 vs +3.0 (0.8-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.8 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.7Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.7 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.8 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 27, 7:20 PM CDT
LAR1-2-0@
DEN2-1-0WIN PROBABILITYLAR 57.7%FINAL / MODEL26–30 / 24.0–21.5POINT SPREADDEN · 50.1%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.0%TOP PICKLAR57.7%
LAR1-2-0@DEN2-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LAR 24.0—DEN 21.5
MONEYLINE
LAR WIN (57.7%)
MODELLAR -142
SPORTSBOOKLAR -142
✕ LOSTSPREAD
DEN +2.5 (50.1%)
MODEL+2.5
SPORTSBOOKDEN +2.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 45.5 (50.0%)
MODEL45.5
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 45.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DEN is at home. The model favors LAR at 57.7% and projects LAR 24.0–DEN 21.5. Key injuries: Jonathon Cooper (LB, out), Nick Gargiulo (G, out), Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, questionable), Jordan Whittington (WR, questionable). LAR last 2: L 7–27 vs SF, W 28–6 vs NYG. DEN last 2: L 10–31 vs KC, W 20–13 vs JAX. Weather: 82°F, gusts 1 mph, precipitation 1%; model total adjustment -0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.5 vs -2.5 (0.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.0 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.2Context Adjustment +0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALMon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CDTPHI2-1-0@
CHI2-1-0WIN PROBABILITYPHI 72.0%FINAL / MODEL7–27 / 24.2–17.9POINT SPREADPHI · 57.4%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.6%TOP PICKPHI72.0%
PHI2-1-0@CHI2-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PHI 24.2—CHI 17.9
MONEYLINE
PHI WIN (72.0%)
MODELPHI -225
SPORTSBOOKPHI -225
✕ LOSTSPREAD
PHI -6.3 (57.4%)
MODEL-6.3
SPORTSBOOKPHI -4.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 42.0 (51.6%)
MODEL42.0
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CHI is at home. The model favors PHI at 72.0% and projects PHI 24.2–CHI 17.9. Key injuries: Caleb Williams (QB, doubtful), Tyson Bagent (QB, questionable), Kyler Gordon (CB, out), Dallas Goedert (TE, doubtful). PHI last 2: W 24–22 vs WSH, W 24–20 vs TEN. CHI last 2: W 59–37 vs CAR, L 3–9 vs MIN. Weather: 67°F, gusts 6 mph, precipitation 6%; model total adjustment -0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -6.3 vs -4.5 (1.8-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.8 ptsInjury Adjustment -2.5Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-2.5 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.8 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.